Sacramento: Home Value Forecast's Pick as the "Next Phoenix"
Pro Teck Valuation Services' Home
Value Forecast Reports On Another Hard Hit Housing Market Showing
Positive Leading Indicators For A Rebound
WALTHAM, MA (PRWEB) August 08, 2012
Pro Teck Valuation Services’ August Home Value Forecast Update explores
which hard-hit metros may be the next Phoenix, AZ: on the rebound and
good candidates for investment or home buying opportunities.
“Two previously hard-hit metro areas that stand out are Orange County
(Santa Ana) and Sacramento, California,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro
Teck Valuation Services. “Sacramento is particularly interesting because
like in Phoenix, home prices overshot on the downside after the market
peak in 2006. All nine of Sacramento’s market-based indicators are
exhibiting positive changes from a year ago. For example, the number of
active listings is down 39.21 percent, months of remaining housing
inventory down to 3.65 months and foreclosure sales down 52.79 percent.”
To help predict the longer-term cyclical turning points of real
estate markets, Home Value Forecast partner Collateral Analytics
previously developed a Leading Real Estate Index (LREI) for all Core
Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) in the U.S. The authors show how the
LREI for Sacramento had accurately predicted the most recent upturn and
downturn in the market. This Leading Index is based on a number of
fundamental factors that drive real estate markets, such as employment
growth, home sales activity, the unemployment rate, housing
affordability index, new building permits, etc. The LREI is a “diffusion
index” that measures how many components of the LREI are moving in a
positive direction at any point in time. The LREI passing up through a
value of 50 is a good precursor of a pending increase in home prices
while a move down through 50 is a signal of flat or declining prices.
“Sacramento’s LREI has been climbing over the past two years and
recently shot up to a value of 50, which means that half of its
components are moving in a positive direction relative to their
historical performances and that further home price appreciation is
expected,” added O’Grady. “Another important factor supporting home
prices in Sacramento is affordability. This month’s Home Value Forecast
shows that Sacramento’s housing affordability index is at its highest
level in years. Also, in many areas of the Sacramento market, we are
seeing nearly every ZIP code classified as “good” or “normal” according
to our most recent Market Condition scoring system, which is in contrast
to the weakness in the market a year ago.”
This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of
the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by our market
condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home
markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best
and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market
indicators, including: sales and listing activity and prices, MRI, days
on market, sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.
“Our market of interest this month, Sacramento, is one of four
California metros in the top 10,” said Michael Sklarz, Principal of
Collateral Analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast.
“New additions this month include Seattle, WA, Richmond, VA, and Grand
Rapids, MI. All of these markets have experienced significant declines
in active listing counts over the past year. This has led to most of
these markets currently having balanced or tight markets based on their
remaining months of housing inventory.”
August’s top CBSAs include:
- Sacramento-Arden Arcade-Roseville, CA
- West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL
- Baton Rouge, LA
- Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
- Richmond, VA
- Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
- Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
- Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
- Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
“In our bottom CBSAs, prices in many of these metros, especially in
the Northeast have held up much better since the market peak in 2005-06
compared to the current top ranked markets,” added Sklarz. “This helps
explain why the relative rankings in that the bottom ranked metros are
not offering the same bargains as the top ranked ones with regard to
compelling prices and high rental yields.”
The bottom CBSAs for August were:
- Huntsville, AL
- Edison, NJ
- El Paso, TX
- Nassau-Suffolk, NY
- Newark-Union, NJ-PA
- Spokane, WA
- Lake County-Kenosha, IL-WI
- Greenville-Mauldin-Easley, SC
- Bridgeport, Stamford, Norwalk, CT
- New Haven-Milford, CT
About HomeValueForecast.com
Home Value Forecast
was created from a strategic partnership between Pro Teck Valuation
Services and Collateral Analytics. HVF provides insight into the current
and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market
snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.
Home Value Forecast delivers a monthly briefing along with “Lessons
from the Data,” an in-depth article based on trends unearthed in the
data.
HVF is built using numerous data sources including public records,
local market MLS and general economic data. The top 750 CBSAs as well
as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are
available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more
about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real
estate valuation products visit us at
http://www.proteckservices.com.
Reporters interested in national, regional or metro level housing
data tailored to meet story needs, please email your inquiry to
mediarequest(at)protk(dot)com.
Editor’s Note:
A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) is a
U.S. geographic area defined by the
Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and
adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by
commuting. The term "CBSA" refers collectively to both metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) and
micropolitan areas.
Micropolitan areas are based around Census Bureau-defined urban
clusters of at least 10,000 and fewer than 50,000 people. Metropolitan
Statistical Areas (MSAs) are defined urban clusters of more than 50,000
people.
August 2012 U.S. Economic And Housing Market Outlook
The Shadow
Published: Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2012 - 10:22 am
MCLEAN, Va., Aug. 8, 2012 -- /PRNewswire/ --
Freddie Mac
(OTC: FMCC) released today its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook
for August showing why the so-called shadow inventory might not be as
foreboding as many thought and an important reason why is the rate at
which excess housing is being absorbed.
Outlook Highlights
- The Freddie Mac House Price Index for the U.S. showed a 4.8 percent
gain from March to June 2012, the largest quarterly pickup in eight
years; the national index posted a June-to-June rise of 1 percent, the
largest annual appreciation since November 2006.
- Rental vacancy rates have fallen to 8.6 percent, the lowest since
the second quarter of 2002. The for-sale vacancy rate has dipped to 2.1
percent, the least since the second quarter of 2006.
- Nationally, the for-rent market now appears to be in relatively good
balance, with the rental stock close to overall rental demand,
resulting in "normal" vacancy levels.
- This continuing shrinkage in excess vacant stock is important
because it means that in most markets the REO homes on the for-sale
market are not competing with an oversized vacant housing inventory.
- Even if national indexes dip in the seasonally weak autumn and
winter months, the declines probably won't be big enough to erase the
good second-quarter news on home values.
Watch a short
preview video and download the complete
August 2012 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook.
Freddie Mac compiles data on major economic and housing and mortgage
market indicators and offers forecasts based on those indicators.
Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac, vice president and chief economist.
- "While the shadow inventory persists, there is an important
difference in today's market compared with those of recent years and
that's the substantially reduced amount of excess vacant housing. The
housing recovery may finally be coming out from the shadows."
Get the latest information from Freddie Mac's Office of the Chief Economist on Twitter:
@FreddieMac
Freddie
Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability
and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie
Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage
capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in
four homebuyers and is one of the largest sources of financing for
multifamily housing.
www.FreddieMac.com.
Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/08/08/4705993/august-2012-us-economic-and-housing.html#storylink=cpy
